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The Politics Pantry #1: Bremain or Brexit?

What does BREXIT actually mean? BREXIT is a combination of two words: Britain and Exit. My preferred option is ‘Bremain’ – simply referring to the camp wishing for the UK to remain part of the European Union.

What sort of implications would leaving have on the UK?

It is likely that if the UK leaves the European Union that there will be recession in the UK which would mostly be caused in the de-valuation of the pound.  Therefore, if the UK was to back BREXIT and leave the EU on the 23rd of June the pound is likely to get weaker as investors don’t want to invest in a country whose future is uncertain.

The economic concept of ‘SPICED’ (Strong Pound, Imports Cheaper, Exports Dearer) suggests that imports would become more expensive whilst exports would be cheaper for foreigners. Overall the price we pay in the shops would be higher.

The  fear of leaving has already had significant ramifications on the UK. In just two days last week £20 billion was wiped from the value of Britain’s biggest businesses which is why much uncertainty looms over job security, neatly bringing me to my next point…

The UK would undoubtedly lose some jobs if the UK decides to leave the European Union.  ‘IN’ propaganda warns that 3 million jobs are dependent on trade with Europe and arguably BREXIT would put them at risk but if we did decide to leave I am sure many of these jobs would remain.  Michael Gove, made an ‘off the cuff’ comment that the first jobs to go would be the 73 MEP’s who represent us in Europe. Yet because of the uncertainty the risk is high for a much broader spectrum.

The liquidators for BHS recently announced the loss of 11,000 jobs – the public were up in arms. Yet 11,000 jobs would just be a drop in the ocean Compared to the possibilities following BREXIT.

  1. My third consideration is likely to divide many, but ultimately a split from the EU could result in another Scottish Independence vote. The Scottish Nationalist Party under the guidance of Nicola Sturgeon won 56 out of the 59 seats at the 2015 General Election which shows a strong nationalist feeling. Scotland certainly benefits from the EU and Britain’s continued membership. In 2014 the main campaign for ‘No’ was that Scotland would retain the pound and an oil price of $110 per barrel. Yet if the UK left the EU, the pound is likely to be far weaker and the price of oil is currently around $30 a barrel. The deadly cocktail of a weak pound and low oil prices would  make the idea of staying part of the UK a less attractive prospect.

    Prof John Curtice, of the University of Strathclyde believes that many Scotts are ‘Eurosceptic’ and so a vote to leave the EU may be boosted north of the  border.  Curtice goes onto say…

    60% of people in Scotland can also be classified as Eurosceptic, just five points below the figure for Britain as a whole and higher than recorded by any previous Scottish Social Attitudes survey. It appears that the mood for a looser relationship with the EU is pervasive throughout Britain.
    Professor John Curtice

  2. Perhaps Labour would like to suggest another reason for staying in the EU is to ‘stop the evil, nasty, green eyed and manipulative Tory government stealing money off working class people’. hilts this may seem ridiculous rights for workers such as paid leave, equal pay, maternal and paternity rights are likely to be protected if we leave or remain in the EU in a  post BREXIT world uncertainty still overhangs. This is especially the case if David Cameron were to resign as Prime Minister.

    Meanwhile  Conservative MP Sarah Wollaston has left the European Union referendum ‘Leave’ camp over its claims that the NHS would benefit from further funding if Britain leaves the EU.

    She said that:

    If you’re in a position where you can’t hand out a Vote Leave leaflet, you can’t be campaigning for that organisation.
    Sarah Wollaston MP

    Therefore, my fifth and final point would be that I don’t trust the leave campaign and the stories which they have created, spinning a web of contempt and untruths such as the idea that the UK pays £350 million to the EU every week.

    So, leaving the EU will have dramatic consequences for the UK, and if I were old enough to have the vote would be crossing ‘Remain’ on the 23rd June, not because the EU is perfect, far from it, but because I don’t believe that leaving and running away will have the desired effect on prosperity which the ‘Leave’ camp would like us to believe.

If you have opinions on this, please let me know….

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