Although “Brexit” won the referendum it is not necessarily the case that we are going to leave the EU. No-one can yet know the long-term consequences of the vote but we do know that the big winner was Boris Johnson – and his ambitions might not yet be as obvious as they seem.
Politics is a nuanced and delicate art, not suited to the binary certainty of a yes or no. More often it is about weaving a winding path and the politician who too clearly signals his direction travel is rather too easy to tackle. People rarely get what they vote for: it looks like we’ve got Boris, but what does that mean? Almost certainly he wants something very different from Nigel Farage and the majority of people who voted Brexit.
Whatever accusations you might throw at Boris, the idea that he is a small-minded little Englander is ridiculous. He has his sights set on a bigger canvas – he doesn’t want a smaller country – he doesn’t even want to be Prime Minister. He wants to be an Emperor.
Boris didn’t lead Brexit in order to leave the EU, but to engineer a negotiating position. He wants a reformed Europe, not the current hodgepodge of Bureaucratic meddling, slow, clumsy and remote. He wants a Europe that is more powerful than America, sharper than China and more at ease with itself than Russia.
The man he must negotiate with is Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission, who knows this. He also knows that once formal negotiations start negotiating power will seep out of the UK’s control because there is a fixed two year time limit and if no agreement is reached Britain must accept whatever is offered. Boris will not hand over control of the final whistle but Junker is obliged to try to wrestle it from him and has already said that he will not agree to pre-treaty negotiations. Johnson is gambling that he will. Fortunately Cameron’s resignation statement and the clear line taken by Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, relieved the pressure on international money markets, buying Johnson a whole summer in darkened rooms.
The other advantage Boris has is that Juncker is well aware of the need for reform. Euroscepticism is on the march and if the project is to survive at all then the concerns of many countries, not just Britain, must be addressed. Boris will not be pushing at an open door, but he does have the keys to a secret passage.
On the Remain side is still the self-interest of America, Japan, 27 EU countries, dozens of multinational companies and academic institutions, the majority of MPs, Business leaders, economists, the young, the judiciary and of course many well-educated wealthy elites across Britain, particularly in London, Bristol, Oxford and Scotland. These groups should not be discounted – they will not take the Exit lying down and in coming weeks are sure to be involved in concerted behind the scenes talks to encourage an alternative solution.
Under this scenario Boris could present wholesale reform of the EU in a second referendum at some point before the next election, which under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act is due on 7th May 2020. Cameron got it wrong because he sought concessions: Boris will not make the same mistake, he will seek new terms for all countries – a Europe where sovereignty, border controls and economic prosperity are guaranteed.
Such an outcome will be sure to send Nigel Farage into an apoplectic tailspin, but Boris will lose no sleep over that: during the referendum – and even now at its conclusion- Johnson distanced himself from UKIP. Ironically UKIP supporters were mocked for their suspicions of an MI5 conspiracy in the election itself, but there is always a place within democracy for stitching up the misguided – especially when they look like winning. Politics is a dirty game. Nigel Farage is a man destined for failure. Let him enjoy today: it won’t last long.
