Less Than 100 Days To Go: Democrats’ Odds to Control House More Likely

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With less than 100 days to go until the U.S. midterm elections, here is a brief guide as to how the race to the House of Representatives is shaping up for November 6th. Has Donald Trump’s rhetoric turned the Republican party against him, not even halfway through his first term as president of the United States? On November 7th, the answer to that question will eventually become a lot clearer as we will see the way the midterm elections have played out.

Perhaps the biggest race of the three for the midterms is the race for the House of Representatives. All 435 House of Representatives seats are up for grabs on November 6th, with the current prediction set to see the Democrats take control of the house, something that would ultimately disrupt the Trump presidency; from there on out, any legislation that is proposed could be blocked, causing chaos and legislative gridlock on Capitol Hill. The House currently consists of: Republicans holding 235 seats whilst the Democrats hold 193, with there being seven vacancies.  218 seats are required for control of the House and the Democrats require a turn of 23/24 seats at the polls to take control, with some analysts predicting they could reach in excess of 30.  There have been 17 recent changes in the race, where 17 House districts across the country have all swung towards the favour of the Democrats, increasing the chances of stealing a win from the hands of the GOP. At the start of June the Democrats had a projected lead of 3.2 at the polls, by the end of July that had more than doubled to around 7.1 points – with the current projection looking like Democrats 46.8 to Republicans’ 39.7 (according to the RealClearPolitics polling average). According to the poll, the current predicted House map sees it being tightly contested, with the Democrats having 199 seats and the Republicans edging them out with 201 seats, with still 35 ‘Toss-ups’ (when the seat is contested between both parties so that no prediction is certain, and either party has roughly the same chance of winning). The Democrats currently have four more likely wins, sitting on 174, with the Republicans sitting on 170.

The House battleground is still hotly contested however, and in the next few months it is certain to change in accordance to polling predictions and voting behaviour. Some of the major areas yet to play out on the battlefield are as follows: One GOP held seat in Pennsylvania, (note that this was one of the key swing states for Donald Trump in 2016),  is now seen as a safe seat for the Democrats, with two other seats seen as likely Democratic party pickups. There is bad news for four of the Republican seats up for grabs as three of them, with no incumbent, are predicted to fall towards the Democrats. The bad news doesn’t stop there for the Republicans, as 33 seats of their seats are toss-ups ahead of the election, making things so much more interesting as with this number there comes the feeling that the Democrats could take what is needed from those toss-ups to control the house. In contrast to the 33 toss-up seats on the Republican side, just two are seen as toss-ups on the Democrat side with a further one seen as a safe Republican seat. The loss of Republican control and ground across House districts around the country in the last four years seems more evident as we near November 6th. To see the Republicans lose control of the House at the halfway point of Trump’s presidency would be a damning report of him and his administration’s work in the first two years. The good news for the Democrats is that with them needing to flip around 23 Republican seats to take the House, they could indeed pull off a win with less than half of the competitive seats at stake, something that would strike another blow to Republican hopes.

There are of course downsides for the Democrats too; it wouldn’t be an election without it. Standing in the way of the Democrats are two obstructions; one being gerrymandered states and a gerrymandered house, the other being the history of their younger voters being less reliable at the midterms compared to older GOP voters. In reality, the Democrats didn’t expect to be in such a great position to take back control of the House at this point of the race, but with less than 100 days to go, and with many reasons to be optimistic about it all, could this be the year for the Democrats? And if it is to be, there is no doubt that the process of impeachment will begin to slowly pull away in first gear. The real question is centred around the voters, however. Will these midterms prove to be evidence of Trump’s approval ratings and the Republicans’ trust in their party? If the Democrats win will it be a knee-jerk reaction of the American people, a sign of ever-growing frustration towards the president and the Republican party’s apparent choice to ignore hot topic issues such as gun control?

Have U.S. voters started to wake up and realise that to make America great again, they, the people, have to vote for the change and the America they want to see, not the one the President dreams about seeing? Come November 7th, the answers to these questions will become clear.