Future predictions from our current political climate

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With Speaker John Bercow delaying a vote on Boris Johnson’s newly brokered deal with the EU, it is clear to see that we are living in a highly turbulent political era. As a result of this, it is becoming much more difficult to discern any certainties for our future, but we thought we’d take a crack at it anyway.

To start off, it is highly likely that the UK will not leave the EU on October the 31st because of the way the House voted on the 19th. As it stands, the only route out of the EU by that deadline would be through a ‘No-Deal Brexit’, unless MPs vote for Boris’ deal. However, MPs have made this process very difficult for the PM through the creation of both the ‘Benn Act’ and the ‘Letwin amendment’. The ‘Benn act’ states that Boris Johnson must request a three-month delay to renegotiate the terms of Brexit unless he can get MPs to either vote for his deal or no deal. MPs have already voted down no-deal but despite this, there is the possibility that the PM will get the numbers behind his new deal. More recently, the ‘Letwin Amendment’ says that parliament has to have ample opportunity to review Johnson’s new deal, although it has been indicated that Sir Oliver Letwin may have only created this amendment to slow down the process of Brexit.

Even after the narrow loss in parliament regarding the ‘Letwin Amendment’, Mr Johnson is reported to have reinforced a previous statement, saying that the UK will still leave the EU on Halloween with or without a deal. Whilst this has garnered some support from the general public (indicated by Johnson’s fifteen point lead over Labour in a poll taken by the Guardian), his critics have expressed confusion at how he would do this, as any infringement of the ‘Benn Act’ could result in legal action.

Boris Johnson is in a tough spot at the moment. If he loses the vote on his new deal (which is likely) and goes over to Brussels and asks for an extension, the government would be forced to call a general election which he could very possibly win. But by going over to Brussels, he may lose support for breaking the promise he made at the start of his tenure as PM: to refuse to ask for an extension.